By examining Lula’s working-class roots, social welfare policies, political alliances, and continued appeal among millions of Brazilians, it becomes possible to understand why the Brazilian president retains a significant base of support despite widespread dissatisfaction with his government.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, widely known as Lula, remains one of the most consequential and polarizing figures in Brazilian politics. A former metalworker and labor union leader who rose from poverty to the presidency, Lula has built his political identity around social inclusion, workers’ rights, poverty reduction, and the role of government in addressing economic inequality.
As Brazil approaches the presidential runoff scheduled for October 25, 2026, the support behind Lula is once again at the center of national and international attention. His political coalition continues to mobilize voters who credit his administrations with expanding social assistance and improving opportunities for lower-income Brazilians. At the sometime, he faces substantial opposition from conservative voters, critics of his economic policies, and people dissatisfied with his government’s performance.
The current contest illustrates a central feature of Brazilian politics: Lula’s support is rooted not only in his policies butalso in his personal history, the political loyalties he has cultivated over decades, and competing visions of Brazil’s future.
Recent developments show that this support remains substantial, but it is not universal. In the October 4 first round of the2026 presidential election, Lula received 45.16% of the vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro received 47.03%, according
to results reported by Folha de S.Paulo. The runoff has therefore become a closely contested struggle for voters who
remain undecided or who supported other candidates in the first round.
1. From working-class origins to the presidency
Lula’s political appeal is closely connected to his personal history. Born in 1945 in Pernambuco, in Brazil’s impoverished
Northeast, he grew up in a large family and experienced economic hardship before moving with his family to the
industrial region surrounding São Paulo.
He trained as a metalworker and became involved in the labor movement during the military dictatorship that governed
Brazil from 1964 to 1985. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, he emerged as a prominent union leader, helping organize
strikes demanding better wages and working conditions.
His activism helped establish his reputation as a representative of workers who felt excluded from political and economic
power. In 1980, he helped found the Workers’ Party, known by its Portuguese abbreviation, PT.
After unsuccessful presidential campaigns, Lula won the presidency in 2002 and took office in January 2003. He served
two consecutive terms, through 2010, before returning to office in January 2023 following his victory over incumbent Jair
Bolsonaro in the 2022 election.
For many supporters, this trajectory—from poverty and industrial labor to the highest elected office in Brazil—makes
Lula a symbol of social mobility. His life story reinforces his argument that government should pay particular attention to
workers, low-income families, and people who have historically had limited access to economic opportunity.
However, personal identification with a leader does not necessarily translate into permanent political loyalty. Support for
Lula has varied across elections, and his administrations have faced criticism over corruption scandals involving members
of his party, economic decisions, public security, and the performance of government institutions.
2. Why Lula continues to receive support
Lula’s support comes from several overlapping groups rather than a single political constituency. Social assistance, labor
politics, regional loyalties, party organization, and concerns about the alternatives all contribute to his continued political
standing.
Social welfare and poverty reduction
One of the central pillars of Lula’s political support is his association with social welfare programs, particularly Bolsa
Família.
The program provides financial assistance to eligible low-income families, subject to program rules, including
requirements related to children’s education and health. Its purpose is to help reduce poverty and improve access to
essential services.
During Lula’s first two presidential terms, expanded social assistance coincided with improvements in household income
sand reductions in poverty. Researchers have also identified Bolsa Família as an important contributor to reducing
inequality, although employment, wage growth, economic conditions, and other government policies also influenced
those outcomes.
Lula restored and expanded the program after returning to office in 2023. His government has also emphasized the
minimum wage, food security, education, and measures intended to improve employment and household purchasing
power.
These policies are particularly relevant to supporters who depend on public assistance or believe government programs
have improved opportunities for their families.
The political relationship is not simply a matter of receiving benefits. Some voters view social welfare as a legitimate
public investment that helps children remain in school, reduces extreme deprivation, and gives families greater economic
stability.
Others question the long-term cost of such programs, their effectiveness in helping people move into stable employment,or whether the government can maintain spending without creating fiscal pressures. Those disagreements are an important
part of the debate over Lula’s economic approach.
Support among workers and lower-income Brazilians
Lula’s history in the labor movement continues to shape his public image. His political message emphasizes employment,wage growth, workers’ rights, and the role of the state in reducing inequality.
In September 2026, polling by Ipsos-Ipec found that positive assessments of Lula’s administration were more prevalent
among people who said they had voted for him in 2022, residents of the Northeast, and households earning up to one
minimum wage. These results are consistent with the constituencies that have been important to his political coalition.
For many such voters, political support may reflect a combination of economic experience, long-standing party
identification, and concern about whether an alternative government would maintain existing benefits.
Nevertheless, lower-income Brazilians are not politically uniform. Employment conditions, food and housing costs,religion, crime, and individual assessments of government performance can all influence voting preferences.
The importance of Brazil’s Northeast
The Northeast has been one of Lula’s most important electoral strongholds. The region has historically experienced high levels of poverty and economic inequality, and Lula’s emphasis on social assistance and regional development has helped him establish a durable political presence there.
His personal origins in Pernambuco also reinforce his connection with the region, although his support extends far beyond it.
Ipsos-Ipec’s September 2026 survey found that 47% of respondents in the Northeast rated his administration as good or excellent, compared with 33% nationally. The same survey found that approval of his handling of the presidency was 59%in the Northeast, compared with 42% nationally.
These figures help explain why regional differences matter in Brazilian politics. A national average can obscure strong support in some areas and substantial opposition in others.
They also demonstrate why Lula’s political position cannot be understood solely through the perspective of voters in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, or Brazil’s wealthier southern regions.
Party alliances and political organization
Lula’s support also depends on political alliances. His coalition includes the Workers’ Party and other parties whose leaders may disagree on particular policies but cooperate around his presidential candidacy.
The coalition’s published 2026 program emphasizes national sovereignty, democracy, public security, modernization of the state, reducing inequality, and investment in education, health care, infrastructure, and economic development. The alliance includes seven parties and retains Geraldo Alckmin as Lula’s running mate.
These alliances are important because presidential elections require more than a committed base. Candidates must build relationships across party lines, appeal to voters who are not strongly ideological, and establish legislative support to govern effectively.
For Lula, the challenge is to retain his established supporters while persuading undecided voters and people who supported other candidates in the first round that his program addresses their concerns.
3. The support Lula is receiving in October 2026
The final stretch of Brazil’s 2026 presidential campaign has demonstrated that Lula continues to command significant political support, even as public opinion remains divided.
On October 18, Reuters reported that Lula’s supporters gathered in Brasília, while supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro rallied on São Paulo’s Paulista Avenue. The rival demonstrations illustrated the intensity of Brazil’s political polarization as the candidates prepared for their first televised debate ahead of the October 25 runoff.
Three developments help explain the support Lula is receiving.
A committed electoral base
Lula retains a substantial constituency among voters who supported him in 2022, particularly people who associate his earlier administrations with improvements in living standards and social mobility.
In the October 14 Quaest survey, 45% of respondents approved of Lula’s government, while 48% disapproved. These figures measured approval of his administration, not necessarily voting intentions in the runoff. The survey interviewed2,154 people between October 10 and 13 and had a margin of error of two percentage points.
The findings demonstrate that Lula retains a large base of support, but they also show that opposition to his government is substantial.
Renewed engagement on social media
Lula has also experienced a change in his digital presence during the second round of the campaign.
According to Folha de S.Paulo, Lula overtook Flávio Bolsonaro in the Digital Popularity Index developed by Quaest between October 4 and 15. Lula’s score rose from 70.7 to 82.6, while Bolsonaro’s fell from 80 to 76.4.
The index measures aspects of digital visibility, engagement, mobilization, and public interest. It does not directly measure how many people intend to vote for a candidate, nor does it establish that online engagement will translate into additional votes.
Nevertheless, the figures suggest that Lula’s campaign has succeeded in generating renewed online activity during the runoff period.
Efforts to attract undecided voters
The third source of support is the effort to reach voters who have not firmly committed to either candidate.
Reuters reported that approximately 33 million eligible voters abstained in the first round, giving both campaigns an incentive to encourage participation. The campaigns have also sought to appeal to voters whose preferred candidates did not advance to the runoff.
Lula’s challenge is therefore twofold: preserve the loyalty of his existing supporters and broaden his appeal among voters who remain dissatisfied, undecided, or reluctant to participate.
4. What do the latest polls reveal about Lula’s support?
The available polling shows a divided electorate rather than a uniform wave of support for either candidate.
| Measure | Finding | Source and date |
| Approval of Lula’s government | 45% approve; 48% disapprove | Quaest, October 14, 2026 |
| Positive assessment of his administration | 34% rate it positively; 40% negatively | Quaest, October 14, 2026 |
| First-round presidential vote | Lula 45.16%; Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% | October 4, 2026 |
| Digital Popularity Index | Lula 82.6; Flávio Bolsonaro 76.4 | October 15, 2026 |
These measurements describe different things. First-round vote totals are actual election results, whereas approval ratings and digital popularity indexes measure public attitudes and online activity using different methods.
The distinction is important. A candidate can generate substantial enthusiasm among committed supporters while still facing a difficult contest among the wider electorate.
The data also show why it would be misleading to describe Lula’s support as either collapsing or universally strong. His electoral base remains significant, but his government receives negative assessments from a substantial portion of the population.
5. The role of economic policy in maintaining support
Economic policy is central to Lula’s effort to retain public backing.
His administration has emphasized social transfers, minimum-wage increases, employment, educational assistance, and measures designed to support household incomes. These policies appeal to voters who prioritize poverty reduction and economic security.
Following the first round of the 2026 election, the government also announced additional economic measures. UOL reported on October 14 that the package included temporary fuel-tax relief, continued fuel subsidies, expanded educational benefits, assistance for micro entrepreneurs, and proposed debt-renegotiation measures. Some elements depended on legislative approval or further implementation.
Such measures can have several political and economic implications.
- For lower-income households: Assistance may ease immediate financial pressures.
- For small businesses: Credit and debt-relief measures may improve access to financing.
- For public finances: Subsidies and tax reductions can create fiscal costs that must be considered alongside their intended benefits.
- For the election campaign: Voters may evaluate the measures according to their practical effects, their timing, and whether they believe the government can sustain them.
The timing of new measures during an election campaign also invites scrutiny. Supporters may view them as a response to economic needs, while critics may question their fiscal implications or argue that election-year announcements are politically motivated.
Determining their effectiveness requires examining implementation, costs, and measurable outcomes rather than relyingon campaign claims alone.
6. Why many Brazilians oppose Lula
A complete discussion of Lula’s support must also consider the reasons a significant portion of the electorate rejects his leadership.
His opponents include conservative voters, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro’s political movement, some evangelical voters,and people who are dissatisfied with government performance or the Workers’ Party’s record.
Several issues contribute to this opposition.
Corruption and political trust. Lula’s political career has been affected by major corruption controversies involving the Workers’ Party and Brazil’s political establishment. Lula spent 580 days in prison after a corruption conviction that was subsequently annulled because of problems with the proceedings. The annulment removed the legal basis for that conviction; it should not be confused with a judicial determination that every allegation associated with the broader corruption scandals was false. The controversies continue to influence political attitudes.
Public security. Crime and violence remain important concerns for many Brazilian voters. Some prefer candidates who advocate more aggressive law-enforcement policies, while others emphasize prevention, institutional accountability, and social investment.
Economic concerns. Inflation, taxation, government spending, debt, and the cost of living can influence public perceptions even when particular economic indicators improve.
Ideological differences. Many conservative voters oppose Lula’s left-wing economic and social agenda, his party’s political priorities, or his approach to international relations.
Political polarization. Support for Lula is closely tied to opposition to Bolsonaro’s political movement for some voters,while opposition to Lula is similarly connected to resistance to the Workers’ Party among others.
These disagreements are reflected in the October campaign, in which supporters of both candidates have held large public demonstrations and expressed sharply contrasting views of Brazil’s political future.
Understanding these opposing perspectives is essential to explaining Lula’s continued political relevance. His support is partly a reflection of confidence in his policies and partly a product of a broader struggle between competing political identities.
7. International attention and Lula’s global role
Lula’s support and political standing also matter beyond Brazil’s borders.
He has pursued an active foreign policy that emphasizes Brazil’s role in multilateral institutions, cooperation among developing economies, environmental diplomacy, and a more prominent position for Brazil in international affairs.
His engagement with BRICS countries and other emerging economies has helped position Brazil as an advocate for a more multi polar international system. Supporters regard this approach as an opportunity to increase Brazil’s diplomatic influence and diversify its economic relationships.
Critics, however, have questioned aspects of his international positioning, including his approach to conflicts and relationships with governments whose political systems differ from Brazil’s democratic model.
The international response to Lula is therefore mixed, reflecting different national interests and assessments of his foreign policy.
The United States has also become part of the wider political context. Disputes over trade and tariffs have affected Brazil’s economic and diplomatic relationship with Washington. An Atlantic Council analysis published in 2025examined how the Trump administration’s tariffs created political consequences in Brazil and became part of the debate surrounding Lula’s leadership.
International attention does not necessarily translate into domestic electoral support. Brazilian voters ultimately evaluate Lula according to a combination of local economic conditions, social policy, security, political trust, and their views of the country’s place in the world.
8. What Lula’s support means for Brazil’s political future
Lula’s political position in October 2026 illustrates the strength and limitations of a long-established political coalition.
His personal history, ties to organized labor, social welfare policies, and established support in the Northeast continue togive him a substantial electoral base. His campaign has also demonstrated an ability to mobilize supporters through public events, party networks, and digital communication.
At the same time, polling indicates significant dissatisfaction with his government, and the first-round results show that his opponent entered the runoff with a larger share of the vote.
The coming period will test whether Lula can persuade additional voters that his economic and social program addresses their concerns. It will also test whether his opponents can consolidate support among voters who want a different approach to public security, government spending, and economic management.
The outcome will have implications for Brazil’s social programs, economic policy, political alliances, and foreign relations. However, the precise consequences will depend on the election result, the composition of Congress, and the decisions made by the next administration.
Conclusion: A substantial base of support in a deeply divided country
Lula da Silva continues to receive support from millions of Brazilians who associate his political career with workers’ rights, poverty reduction, social assistance, and expanded economic opportunities. His working-class background and long history in national politics reinforce his connection with voters who believe government should play an active role in reducing inequality.
His coalition also benefits from established party networks, regional loyalties, and renewed campaign engagement,including a rise in digital popularity during the October 2026 runoff.
Yet his political position remains contested. Recent surveys show that dissatisfaction with his administration is widespread, while the first-round election results underscore the strength of the opposition led by Flávio Bolsonaro.
The most accurate interpretation is that Lula retains a substantial and organized base of support, but that support exists alongside deep political divisions and significant public criticism.
Ultimately, understanding Lula’s continuing appeal requires looking beyond campaign rallies and online engagement. It means examining the material experiences of Brazilian households, the outcomes of government policies, the credibility of political institutions, and the different priorities that shape voters’ decisions.
Those factors will continue to influence Brazil’s political direction long after the current campaign concludes.